Building where the strain is
Australia is approving too few homes to meet the National Housing Accord, and the homes it does approve are landing in the council areas where mortgage strain is climbing fastest.
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The reading
Australia approved 205,249 dwellings in the twelve months to June 2026. The Accord target implies 240,000 a year. That is a shortfall of 34,751 homes. One in every seven homes that should have been approved was not. Every month of the year came in under the required pace.
Over the same twelve months, the number of mortgage-holding households modelled as under financial strain across the postcodes in this analysis rose 17.8 per cent.
Set approvals and strain side by side by council and the same names turn up on both lists: Logan and Ipswich outside Brisbane, Casey, Hume and Whittlesea on Melbourne’s fringe, Wanneroo north of Perth, Camden and Campbelltown in south-west Sydney, Playford north of Adelaide. These are the council areas with land to build on, and they are also the ones the modelling flags hardest.
The full series
Dwellings approved each month against the Accord pace, Australia, original terms.
| Month | Total approved | Houses | Dwellings excl. houses |
Accord pace | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | 18,256 | 10,757 | 7,499 | 20,000 | −1,744 |
| August 2025 | 15,378 | 9,730 | 5,648 | 20,000 | −4,622 |
| September 2025 | 18,612 | 10,194 | 8,418 | 20,000 | −1,388 |
| October 2025 | 17,569 | 10,747 | 6,822 | 20,000 | −2,431 |
| November 2025 | 18,575 | 9,965 | 8,610 | 20,000 | −1,425 |
| December 2025 | 15,163 | 8,864 | 6,299 | 20,000 | −4,837 |
| January 2026 | 10,685 | 7,065 | 3,620 | 20,000 | −9,315 |
| February 2026 | 19,229 | 10,409 | 8,820 | 20,000 | −771 |
| March 2026 | 18,120 | 11,200 | 6,920 | 20,000 | −1,880 |
| April 2026 | 17,653 | 10,465 | 7,188 | 20,000 | −2,347 |
| May 2026 | 17,046 | 11,202 | 5,844 | 20,000 | −2,954 |
| June 2026 | 18,963 | 11,218 | 7,745 | 20,000 | −1,037 |
| Twelve months | 205,249 | 121,816 | 83,433 | 240,000 | −34,751 |
Source: OurTop10 Pressure Corridors, powered by Digital Finance Analytics · ourtop10.com.au/reports/pressure-corridors/
Original terms, not seasonally adjusted. That is the only basis on which small-area data is published. January’s figure reflects the usual summer shutdown rather than a collapse in demand.
The corridors are building houses, not apartments
In the council areas where more than half of mortgage holders are modelled as strained, 76 per cent of approvals over the year were detached houses: 35,453 houses against 11,104 other dwellings. In the lower-strain councils in the same dataset it was 64 per cent.
Individual corridors run far higher again: Wanneroo 94 per cent, Playford 89, Hume 87, Casey 84. Brisbane City is the exception in that group at 31 per cent. It sits outside the comparison above because it is a capital-city council rather than a growth corridor.
The supply being added is detached housing on the urban fringe, in the corridors where households are already stretched, rather than density closer to jobs. Both sides of that comparison come from the same ABS count, so it does not rely on the modelling.
Where strain rose fastest, and what was approved there
Twelve-month change in strained mortgage households by council, alongside dwellings approved in the same year.
Where the strain data covers a single postcode, the suburb is named rather than the council.
Logan. Strained households rose 42 per cent in a year, and 5,035 homes were approved in the same period. That is the second-largest approval count of any council here.
Camden. Two of its three postcodes are covered here, so the approvals and the strain describe close to the same ground: 21,352 households with a home loan, 19,547 modelled as strained, 1,759 homes approved.
Council by council
Every council where both datasets exist. The coverage column shows how much of each council the strain data actually describes; rows shaded where it covers 40 per cent or more of the council’s postcodes.
| Council | Market | Homes approved yr to Jun 2026 |
Postcodes covered |
Mortgaged households |
Under strain |
Strain rate |
Strain 12 mths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane | Brisbane | 9,237 | 11 of 85 13% |
40,084 | 22,134 | 55% | +7% |
| Logan | Brisbane | 5,035 | 2 of 14 14% |
15,369 | 10,693 | 70% | +42% |
| Wyndham | Melbourne | 4,046 | 2 of 5 40% |
45,903 | 9,276 | 20% | -7% |
| Canberra | ACT | 4,031 | 13 of 29 45% |
67,549 | 17,529 | 26% | +19% |
| Wanneroo | Perth | 4,017 | 2 of 18 11% |
25,607 | 22,749 | 89% | +16% |
| Ipswich | Brisbane | 3,522 | 2 of 7 29% |
22,132 | 14,866 | 67% | +12% |
| Casey | Melbourne | 3,516 | 4 of 10 40% |
54,016 | 29,659 | 55% | +18% |
| Hume | Melbourne | 3,053 | 1 of 13 8% |
23,294 | 11,875 | 51% | +22% |
| Whittlesea | Melbourne | 2,783 | 1 of 9 11% |
11,580 | 7,130 | 62% | +2% |
| The Hills Shire | Sydney | 2,696 | 2 of 4 50% |
24,547 | 9,485 | 39% | +9% |
| Swan | Perth | 2,478 | 3 of 9 33% |
21,211 | 8,291 | 39% | +17% |
| Blacktown | Sydney | 2,415 | 1 of 23 4% |
6,498 | 6,498 | 100% | +9% |
| Playford | Adelaide | 2,241 | 1 of 6 17% |
7,444 | 5,211 | 70% | +18% |
| Liverpool | Sydney | 2,163 | 1 of 9 11% |
7,176 | 7,002 | 98% | +16% |
| Camden | Sydney | 1,759 | 2 of 3 67% |
21,352 | 19,547 | 92% | +20% |
| Campbelltown (NSW) | Sydney | 1,691 | 1 of 7 14% |
12,946 | 12,946 | 100% | +9% |
| Armadale | Perth | 1,648 | 1 of 4 25% |
16,981 | 7,170 | 42% | +45% |
| Toowoomba | Brisbane | 1,541 | 2 of 16 12% |
22,546 | 18,817 | 83% | +24% |
| Stirling | Perth | 1,514 | 2 of 21 10% |
14,657 | 12,199 | 83% | +7% |
| Cockburn | Perth | 1,381 | 2 of 6 33% |
25,639 | 7,197 | 28% | +19% |
| Ballarat | Melbourne | 1,374 | 1 of 6 17% |
10,575 | 9,547 | 90% | +9% |
| Cardinia | Melbourne | 1,294 | 2 of 15 13% |
21,904 | 10,491 | 48% | +12% |
| Onkaparinga | Adelaide | 1,285 | 3 of 16 19% |
19,897 | 7,395 | 37% | +5% |
| Port Adelaide Enfield | Adelaide | 1,144 | 2 of 15 13% |
5,464 | 3,975 | 73% | +24% |
| Fairfield | Sydney | 1,064 | 1 of 9 11% |
15,151 | 14,705 | 97% | +13% |
| Salisbury | Adelaide | 1,030 | 2 of 9 22% |
11,698 | 11,001 | 94% | +19% |
| Marion | Adelaide | 874 | 2 of 10 20% |
9,075 | 4,312 | 48% | +39% |
| Frankston | Melbourne | 786 | 1 of 7 14% |
9,903 | 7,818 | 79% | +22% |
| Cessnock | Sydney | 767 | 1 of 4 25% |
7,182 | 6,783 | 94% | +106% |
| Serpentine-Jarrahdale | Perth | 761 | 1 of 6 17% |
5,853 | 4,943 | 84% | +30% |
| Mount Barker | Adelaide | 669 | 1 of 5 20% |
3,996 | 3,208 | 80% | +8% |
| Brimbank | Melbourne | 656 | 1 of 11 9% |
9,684 | 8,665 | 89% | +19% |
| Mackay | Brisbane | 604 | 1 of 12 8% |
14,447 | 8,139 | 56% | +47% |
| Tea Tree Gully | Adelaide | 543 | 2 of 13 15% |
6,037 | 3,597 | 60% | +18% |
| Canning | Perth | 426 | 2 of 6 33% |
17,547 | 5,028 | 29% | +13% |
| Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional | Sydney | 383 | 1 of 2 50% |
8,804 | 6,603 | 75% | +23% |
| Clarence | Hobart | 292 | 1 of 13 8% |
1,996 | 1,517 | 76% | +24% |
| Palmerston | NT | 248 | 2 of 5 40% |
6,618 | 3,134 | 47% | +34% |
| Launceston | Hobart | 219 | 2 of 3 67% |
4,610 | 3,712 | 81% | +42% |
| Barossa | Adelaide | 208 | 1 of 2 50% |
4,047 | 3,373 | 83% | new to rankings |
| Glenorchy | Hobart | 207 | 3 of 3 100% |
7,477 | 6,163 | 82% | +3% |
| Darwin | NT | 171 | 4 of 9 44% |
10,540 | 3,010 | 29% | +27% |
| Kingborough | Hobart | 145 | 1 of 7 14% |
2,426 | 2,123 | 88% | +97% |
| Sorell | Hobart | 135 | 1 of 5 20% |
1,693 | 1,693 | 100% | +26% |
| Bunbury | Perth | 132 | 1 of 3 33% |
7,901 | 5,805 | 73% | +5% |
| Litchfield | NT | 119 | 2 of 8 25% |
2,392 | 923 | 39% | +30% |
| Huon Valley | Hobart | 90 | 1 of 5 20% |
1,886 | 1,451 | 77% | +7% |
| Cabonne | Sydney | 32 | 1 of 5 20% |
7,733 | 6,587 | 85% | +1% |
| Alice Springs | NT | 31 | 2 of 4 50% |
3,726 | 2,707 | 73% | -4% |
| Katherine | NT | 31 | 1 of 2 50% |
832 | 832 | 100% | +9% |
| Central Highlands (Tas.) | Hobart | 4 | 1 of 1 100% |
2,211 | 2,211 | 100% | +9% |
Source: OurTop10 Pressure Corridors, powered by Digital Finance Analytics · ourtop10.com.au/reports/pressure-corridors/
What the numbers say
The shortfall and the strain point at the same policy problem. The Accord’s answer to housing pressure is supply. Supply ran 34,751 homes behind the required pace over the year, and what did get approved concentrated in growth corridors where strain is climbing. Building more is necessary. Where it lands is a separate question.
The overlap is not a cause. We are not claiming that building causes strain, or that strained councils build faster. Tested directly, the relationship between a council’s strain rate and how fast it builds is flat. What the data shows is that Australia’s growth corridors are carrying both at once.
Strain is moving quickly in specific places. Cessnock more than doubled its strained households in twelve months. Kingborough rose 98 per cent, Mackay 47, Armadale 45 and Logan 42. Four states, same direction.
These are not the same households. New estates are sold to new buyers, not to families already struggling a suburb away. What makes it relevant is that DFA’s largest strained group is recent first home buyers with small deposits, and that is who buys in a growth corridor.
Two western Sydney postcodes sit at the model’s ceiling. In Mount Druitt (2770, Blacktown council) and Campbelltown (2560), the modelled strained count equals the mortgage-holding count. A reading at the ceiling means the model has run out of room, not that every household in those councils is failing.
Approvals are the optimistic number. An approval is permission to build, not a finished home. Some lapse, some are never started, and the rest take years.
Definition and method
The OurTop10 Pressure Corridors sets ABS dwelling approvals by Local Government Area against Digital Finance Analytics modelled mortgage stress for the postcodes inside each council. Approvals are total dwelling units approved, all sectors, all work types, July 2025 to June 2026, in original terms. Strain rate is DFA’s stressed household count divided by mortgage-holding households in the same postcodes. That calculation is performed by OurTop10 and is not published by DFA.
The Accord comparison divides the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million homes over five years from July 2024 evenly across the period, giving 240,000 a year. It is a flat division and does not weight for population growth, state allocation or construction seasonality.
Stated limitations. DFA ranks the most affected postcodes in each market rather than every postcode, so coverage of each council ranges from 4 per cent to 100 per cent and is published in the table above; council figures are not council-wide strain rates. Small-area approvals are published only in original terms, so the annual total here will not match the seasonally adjusted monthly figures used in the OurTop10 Supply Gap, which measures the same shortfall on a seasonally adjusted basis. Monthly small-area approvals are volatile, which is why this index uses a full year.
Revisions. The ABS revises small-area approvals for up to two years. This page carries figures as published in the June 2026 release; revised figures are picked up at the next update and the change is noted.
For journalists
Status: exclusive preview, not published. Please confirm before use.
Contact: Mansour Soltani, Head of Research, OurTop10 · [email protected]
Available for interview, including talkback and on-camera. Martin North of Digital Finance Analytics can also comment on the modelling.
Data: the full 51-council table is available as a spreadsheet on request, including every figure on this page plus postcode-level detail.
Credit line: OurTop10 Pressure Corridors, September 2026, analysis of ABS Building Approvals and Digital Finance Analytics modelling. Link to ourtop10.com.au/reports/pressure-corridors/
The five numbers
- 34,751. Homes Australia fell short of the National Housing Accord pace in the year to June 2026. One in every seven.
- 12 of 12. Months in that year where approvals came in under the required pace.
- 17.8%. Rise in mortgage-holding households under financial strain across the postcodes covered, over the same year. Every state and territory rose.
- 76%. Share of approvals in the most strained council areas that were detached houses, against 64% in comparable councils.
- 42% and 5,035. The rise in strained households in Logan, and the homes approved there, over the same twelve months.
Quotes, cleared for use
“The country is short 34,751 homes against its own target, and every month last year missed the pace. That is the run rate, not a blip.”
Mansour Soltani, Head of Research, OurTop10
“We are not saying that building homes causes mortgage stress. We tested that and the relationship is flat. What the data shows is that the supply we are managing to add is landing in the same growth corridors where households are already stretched, and it is overwhelmingly detached houses on the fringe rather than density near jobs.”
Mansour Soltani, Head of Research, OurTop10
“Logan is the one I would watch. Strained households there rose 42 per cent in a year while five thousand homes were approved. Those are different people in the same postcode, arriving at the same time.”
Mansour Soltani, Head of Research, OurTop10
Your state at a glance
Covers the councils in this analysis, not the whole state. Change is over the twelve months to June 2026.
| Market | Councils | Homes approved | Households under strain | Strain, 12 mths | Most approvals | Highest strain rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 9 | 12,970 | 90,156 | +16.9% | The Hills Shire (2,696) | Blacktown (100%) |
| Melbourne | 8 | 17,508 | 94,461 | +12.9% | Wyndham (4,046) | Ballarat (90%) |
| Brisbane | 5 | 19,939 | 74,649 | +20.3% | Brisbane (9,237) | Toowoomba (83%) |
| Perth | 8 | 12,357 | 73,382 | +16.6% | Wanneroo (4,017) | Wanneroo (89%) |
| Adelaide | 8 | 7,994 | 42,072 | +27.5% | Playford (2,241) | Salisbury (94%) |
| Hobart | 7 | 1,092 | 18,870 | +20.8% | Clarence (292) | Sorell (100%) |
| ACT | 1 | 4,031 | 17,529 | +19.1% | Canberra (4,031) | Canberra (26%) |
| NT | 5 | 600 | 10,606 | +17.6% | Palmerston (248) | Katherine (100%) |
Source: OurTop10 Pressure Corridors, powered by Digital Finance Analytics · ourtop10.com.au/reports/pressure-corridors/
What this report does not say
- It does not say building homes causes mortgage stress. Tested directly, the relationship is flat.
- It does not say the buyers of new homes are the households under strain. They are different people in the same communities.
- It does not give council-wide strain rates. Each figure covers only the postcodes listed in the coverage column.
- A strain reading at 100% means the model has reached its ceiling, not that every household in that area is failing.
Citing this index
Source: the OurTop10 Pressure Corridors, September 2026. OurTop10 analysis of ABS Building Approvals by Local Government Area and Digital Finance Analytics household modelling.
Please link to ourtop10.com.au/reports/pressure-corridors/
Companion index: the OurTop10 Supply Gap tracks the national shortfall month by month. Pressure Corridors asks where the building that does happen is landing.