If the government actually hit its National Housing Accord target, modelling shows average property prices could fall sharply — a generational buying opportunity most Australians won’t welcome.
Published July 2026 · OurTop10 Research, modelling by Primara Research
Media & data enquiries: contact the OurTop10 research team.
OurTop10 modelling by Primara Research shows that if the government delivered on its ambitious housing target, house prices could slump by around $270,000, or 22%. Australia started building roughly 6,000 fewer homes in the March quarter than the previous three months; total new-home starts fell 11.2% to 48,012 dwellings, leaving the country about 125,000 homes behind its target of 1.2 million new properties by 2029.
Primara head of research and data Peter Drennan noted that meeting the target would create a buying opportunity for a generation of Australians — with average prices projected to move from about $925,000 (September 2023) to a $1.15m peak in September 2027, before easing back to around $927,000 by the end of 2031 under the scenario of the government meeting its Accord target.
Independent economist Saul Eslake, quoted by NewsWire in coverage of the modelling, noted the political economy of housing: an estimated one million votes favour cheaper housing versus 11–12 million homeowners and investors with an interest in rising values.
