Paul Bloxham — RBA rate forecast and track record
Paul Bloxham, Chief Economist, Australia, NZ & Global Commodities, HSBC.
Current call: 3 November 2026
Their recorded call for the 3 November 2026 RBA cash rate decision is a rise.
Statement date: 2026-09-29. Source
Accuracy
Recorded track record: 28 of 30 calls (93%). Adjusted for sample size: 89.4%.
Backfilled calls are reconstructed from public statements. They form a backtest, not a live-captured record.
Full recorded call history
| Meeting | Statement date | Call | RBA outcome | Result | Source | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 2026-09-03 | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source | Recorded live |
| 2026-06-16 | 2026-04-22 | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-02-03 | a hold | a rise | Incorrect | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-01-28 | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2025-12-09 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-10-30 | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2025-09-30 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-10 | a cut | a cut | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2025-05-20 | 2025-04-22 | a cut | a cut | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2025-04-01 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2025-02-18 | 2025-02-04 | a cut | a cut | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-12-10 | 2023-12-05 | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-11-05 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-09-24 | 2024-04-22 | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-08-06 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-06-18 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-05-07 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-03-19 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2024-02-06 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2023-12-05 | Date not recorded | a hold | a hold | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2023-11-07 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2023-08-01 | 2023-07-25 | a rise | a hold | Incorrect | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-12-06 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-11-01 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-10-04 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-09-06 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-08-02 | 2022-08-02 | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-07-05 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-06-07 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |
| 2022-05-03 | Date not recorded | a rise | a rise | Correct | Source not recorded | Reconstructed from public statements |